Nedbank Group | Economic research

Economic research

	2009
	» 25 AUGUST 2009
	CAPITAL EXPENDITURE PROJECT LISTING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF 2009
	The global recession and weak local economic conditions have prompted organisations to scale back plans to expand capacity . . .
	To read more download PDF	[ 69 KB ]

	» 24 JUNE 2009
	WILL THE RAND HELP PUSH INFLATION BACK BELOW 6%?
	Inflationary pressures have been abating, but slower than was initially anticipated. Backward-looking services inflation and food prices . . .
	To read more download PDF	[ 159 KB ]

	» 11 MAY 2009
	GLOBAL CRISIS
	The global financial and economic crisis has not spared emerging markets, with some economies looking increasingly vulnerable as export demand falls and capital takes flight . . .
	To read more download PDF	[ 89 KB ]

	2008
	» 12 JUNE 2008
	IS INFLATION ALIVE AGAIN?
	After a remarkable period of low inflation, the past year has seen inflation globally creeping upwards. . .
	To read more download PDF	[ 107 KB ]

	» 12 JUNE 2008
	CENTRAL BANK BEHAVIOUR IN A RISING PRICE ENVIRONMENT
	The reaction of different central banks to the renewed inflation threat has been varied . . .
	To read more download PDF	[ 77 KB ]

	» 13 FEBRUARY 2008
	THE ENERGY CONSTRAINT
	The possibility of an energy constraint on economic growth emerging has been well documented for at least a decade . . .
	To read more download PDF	[ 64 KB ]

	2007
	» 18 OCTOBER 2007
	WHAT A US RECESSION MIGHT MEAN FOR SOUTH AFRICA
	The US economy is threatened with a possible recession for the first time since 2001.
	To read more download PDF	[ 52 KB ]

	» 12 JULY 2007
	BALANCE OF PAYMENT DRIVERS
	In the May 2006 Guide to the Economy we asked whether the widening current account deficit was a problem.
	To read more download PDF	[ 60 KB ]

	» 4 APRIL 2007
	IS CONSUMER DEBT WORRYING?
	Household debt has risen strongly since 2003. As a proportion of personal disposable income it increased from a low of 49,8% in the final quarter of 2002 to 73,8% . . .
	To read more download PDF	[ 69 KB ]

	2006
	» 8 DECEMBER 2006
	HOW ‘CONSTRAINED’ IS THE ECONOMY?
	The past three years has seen the strongest period of growth since the early 1980s . . .
	To read more download PDF	[ 67 KB ]

	» 7 SEPTEMBER 2006
	HOW MUCH FURTHER WILL INTEREST RATES RISE?
	After three years of decline interest rates have started to rise. The general expectation is that this upward cycle will be relatively gentle and short-lived.
	To read more download PDF	[ 72 KB ]

	» 16 MAY 2006
	IS THE WIDENING CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT A PROBLEM?
	South Africa’s current account deficit has widened steadily over the past three years and debate is starting to grow on whether this is sustainable.
	To read more download PDF	[ 60 KB ]

	» 23 JANUARY 2006
	GOOD PROSPECTS FOR INVESTMENT
	Fixed investment activity has accelerated sharply during the past three years, with growth rates approaching levels last seen at the peak of the previous upswing between 1994 and 1996.
	To read more download PDF	[ 52 KB ]

	2005
	» 16 NOVEMBER 2005
	INFLATION ON THE RISE
	Central banks worldwide are warning of potential second-round effects on inflation following the sharp rise in energy prices.
	To read more download PDF	[ 63 KB ]

	» 2 JUNE 2005
	COMMODITY PRICES: WHERE TO NOW?
	Commodity prices have soared over the past three years, leading to speculation that this could be the start of a new ‘supercycle’ after decades of underperformance.
	To read more download PDF	[ 207 KB ]

	2004
	» 22 SEPTEMBER 2004
	INTEREST RATES – ENTERING UNCHARTERED TERRITORY?
	Fixed capital formation is generally viewed as one of the key determinants of an economy’s ability to expand and prosper. Encouragingly, South Africa.
	To read more download PDF	[ 90 KB ]

	» 11 JUNE 2004
	GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT – TROUBLE AHEAD?
	The global climate improved considerably in the second half of 2003 and in early 2004. A strong recovery in the US, fuelled by low interest rates and stimulatory fiscal policies and the emergence of China as a powerful force, pushed commodity prices significantly higher and helped to attract capital into South Africa as funds moved into high-yielding areas.
	To read more download PDF	[ 178 KB ]

	» FEBRUARY 2004
	BUDGET 2004
	Government's recent more expansionary stance was underlined in this budget. Although the strong rand and subdued global growth in the first half of fiscal 2003 contained revenue and left little scope for largesse on the taxation side, expenditure targets are aggressive.
	To read more download PDF	[ 360 KB ]

	» 28 JANUARY 2004
	INTEREST RATES? WHERE TO NOW?
	Over the past seven months prime lending rates have fallen by 5,5 percentage points, from 17% to 11,5%, their lowest levels in two decades. One key has been the rand's gyrations, but other factors are also at work. Is the pessimism justified?
	To read more download PDF	[ 251 KB ]

	2003
	» 26 AUGUST 2003
	THE GYRATING RAND
	The rand has risen by 43% since early 2002 and by 87% since its all-time low in late 2001 against the US dollar. Against the trade-weighted basket it has strengthened by 45% and 34% over the same periods – more modest, but still impressive.
	To read more download PDF	[ 233 KB ]

	» 14 MAY 2003
	TOURISM: ONCE-OFF BOOM OR LIFT OFF?
	The local tourism industry was one of the success stories of 2002. The number of overseas visitors rose by an impressive 20% in 2002, making South Africa the fastest growing tourist destination in the world.
	To read more download PDF	[ 246 KB ]

	» 7 FEBRUARY 2003
	PROSPECTS FOR 2003
	The strength of the domestic economy surprised most in 2002 given the background of an uninviting global scenario as well as rising inflation and interest rates. This has led many to conclude that a second year of positive surprises is in the offing.
	To read more download PDF	[ 286 KB ]

	2002
	» 27 NOVEMBER 2002
	GULF WAR THREAT
	An attack on Iraq could have major implications for the global and local economies.
	To read more download PDF	[ 221 KB ]

	» 27 NOVEMBER 2002
	INFLATION TARGETING: THE IMPLICATIONS
	Changes in the targeting regime raise questions over the interest and inflation rate outlook.
	To read more download PDF	[ 222 KB ]

	» 14 AUGUST 2002
	FIXED INVESTMENT PROSPECTS
	Recent announcements present an encouraging picture.
	To read more download PDF	[ 218 KB ]

	» 14 AUGUST 2002
	GLOBAL OUTLOOK: AND UPDATE
	The global environment appears more ominous.
	To read more download PDF	[ 217 KB ]

	» 2 MAY 2002
	PROSPECTS FOR INFLATION
	The strong rise in inflation has prompted a tightening in monetary policy since the beginning of the year. This feature looks at the reasons behind the recent rise and assesses the chances of an early decline.
	To read more download PDF	[ 289 KB ]

	» 31 JANUARY 2002
	THE RAND COLLAPSE
	The rand's recent collapse has some important common features with those of 1996 and 1998. This feature looks at the effects of the depreciation and examines whether a recovery is at all possible.
	To read more download PDF	[ 261 KB ]

	2001
	» 20 NOVEMBER 2001
	A GLOBAL RECESSION?
	The slowdown in the major developed economies that started late last year has intensified and threatens to become a global recession
	To read more download PDF	[ 271 KB ]

	» 30 AUGUST 2001
	PRIVATISATION: THE ISSUES
	'In every great monarchy in Europe the sale of the crown lands would produce a very large sum of money, which, if applied to the payment of the public debts, would deliver a much greater revenue than any which those lands have ever afforded to the crown
	To read more download PDF	[ 231 KB ]

	» 20 APRIL 2001
	THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF AIDS
	The South African AIDS epidemic and its consequences are receiving ever increasing attention.
	To read more download PDF	[ 216 KB ]

	» 15 FEBRUARY 2001
	OUTLOOK 2001
	The economy grew by just over 3% in 2000, bolstered by good export performance, some recovery in consumer spending and higher agricultural output
	To read more download PDF	[ 228 KB ]

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This page was updated on 15 September, 2009	Return to top