» February 2013 |
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| National Budget 2013 Minister Gordhan had to formulate his budget against a difficult global and local background. Economic growth has been mediocre and the outlook remains cloudy, with significant downside risks both internationally and locally. Slow tax revenue growth and expenditure overshoots mean that the deficit will take longer to move to more acceptable levels of 3% of gdp and lower. Unfortunately the slow progress so far in bringing debt under control has caught the attention of international sovereign rating agencies, with three agencies downgrading South Africa's rating over the past year. In a yield-starved world with quantitative easing in full flow this has had little impact so far, and the country's cost of borrowing new debt has actually fallen. However, further downgrades would move the sovereign close to non-investment grades, with potentially significant implications for the rand, interest rates and non-interest spending. At the same time pressure for increased spending is building in the runup to the 2014 general elections. The agencies and markets were also looking for some clues on how the NDP might be implemented and how it could impact on the fiscus over the medium term. |
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| Preview of National Budget 2013 Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan faces the difficult task of placing the country's public finances on a sustainable path in an environment of faltering economic growth, growing social spending demands and heightened doubts among investors and international ratings agencies about the country's fiscal and economic policies. After a series of sovereign credit rating downgrades in late 2012 and early 2013, the margin for error is limited. The National Budget offers the opportunity to set a clear path to deficit reduction through a sustainable combination of realistic revenue and expenditure proposals. |
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To read more download PDF | [ 49 KB ] |
» October 2012 |
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| Medium Term Budget Policy Statement
Growth once again revised down and deficits up, but commitment to stabilising the debt at reasonable levels renewed . . . |
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» February 2012 |
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| National Budget 2012 Strong revenue figures towards the end of last year have helped Minister Gordhan project a much improved medium-term fiscal picture compared with that predicted at the time of the MTBPS in October last year. The market was taken aback by the quickness in the deficit reduction to levels that are more normal. However, the figures were in line with our predictions (at 4,3% for 2012/13 and 2,7% by 2014/15) and are achievable provided recurrent expenditure is kept under control. Unfortunately, this has so far not been a strong point of the current administration, which has been good at spending on wages and salaries as well as social payouts, but poor at capital spending and maintenance of existing infrastructure. However, the actual outcome will depend heavily on what happens to the global economy and trends in financial markets and there are many potential outcomes. The government therefore cannot afford to become complacent and should view the budget proposals as the absolute minimum needed to achieve a more sustainable fiscal position rather than mission accomplished . . . |
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To read more download PDF | [ 69 KB ] |
| Preview of the National Budget 2012 Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan will report some improvement in public finances when he tables his third budget next week Wednesday. The global and local economic recoveries, albeit patchy and moderate, have produced better revenue growth than originally anticipated, which has helped to reduce the deficit and will create some room to manoeuvre. However, the task remains difficult. The outlook for the economy in 2012 remains uncertain given the troubles in Europe. The deficit is still high and needs to be reduced, while President Zuma has announced an ambitious infrastructure spending programme and previous social spending commitments especially around health care still need to be substantiated. . . . |
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To read more download PDF | [ 49 KB ] |
» OCTOBER 2011 |
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| Medium Term Budget Policy Statement Growth revised down and deficits higher, but a positive message on the composition and effectiveness of spending as well as on encouraging private sector investment and job creation . . . |
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To read more download PDF | [ 46 KB ] |
» February 2011 |
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| National Budget 2011 Stronger economic growth and rising commodity prices have given Minister Gordhan more flexibility in this budget. Somewhat surprisingly, however, the downward trajectory in the fiscal deficit is less aggressive than that projected at the time of the MTBPS in October last year. This is partly because of higher expenditure, but mainly because of a downward revision to tax projections over the medium term. In practice, the deficit could recede more quickly than projected because the revenue estimates look conservative. However, it does highlight that government needs to use existing resources more efficiently and improve spending discipline. This applies particularly to the wage bill . . . |
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To read more download PDF | [ 137 KB ] |
| Preview of the National Budget 2011 Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan tables his second budget in better circumstances than those prevailing a year ago. The global economic and local climates have improved considerably and revenue projections can be made with more confidence. Government finances over the past year have improved and give the Minister more room to manoeuvre. However, the task remains difficult. While the deficit is still high and needs to be brought under control over the medium term, government has announced an ambitious job-orientated growth plan that needs more substantiation in the budget . . . |
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To read more download PDF | [ 77 KB ] |
» February 2010 |
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| Budget 2010 After the dramatic deterioration in government finances during 2009/10, government was always going to have very little room to manoeuvre in this budget. The Minister had to balance disparate demands â€" firstly, to convince markets of government’s intention and ability to stabilise government debt . . . |
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To read more download PDF | [ 861 KB ] |
» February 2009 |
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| Budget 2009 Weakening domestic demand and a sudden, sharp slowdown in the global economy forced difficult choices in this year’s budget. The Minister opted to table a stimulatory budget, with significant increases in spending and some tax relief, particularly for individual taxpayers . . . |
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To read more download PDF | [ 860 KB ] |
» February 2008 |
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| Budget 2008 This year's budget was formulated against the backdrop of a slowing economy and weakening consumer and business confidence. There had been some expectation that the Minister would therefore have to diverge . . . |
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To read more download PDF | [ 649 KB ] |
| Preview of the National Budget 2008 Finance Minister Trevor Manuel will table the 2008/09 National Budget on Wednesday 20 February 2008. The budget comes at a time of much uncertainty. Higher interest rates, the current electricity crisis and fading global growth prospects are undermining confidence . . . |
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To read more download PDF | [ 58 KB ] |
» February 2007 |
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| Budget 2007 Strong revenue overruns and an economy operating at full capacity set the scene for this year's budget. The Treasury had already indicated in the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) that a surplus was likely to be budgeted, partly to help reduce country dissaving . . . |
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To read more download PDF | [ 682 KB ] |
» February 2006 |
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| Budget 2006 A strong economy and better tax collection provided the Minister with considerable latitude to please all parties in this budget. He achieved this by a combination of deficit reduction, tax cuts and spending increases . . . |
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To read more download PDF | [ 120 KB ] |
» February 2005 |
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| Budget 2005 Strong revenue collection helped to produce a budget with something positive for everyone. Government's fiscal policy remains expansionary, but at the same time deficits over the medium term have been moderated . . . |
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To read more download PDF | [ 262 KB ] |
» February 2004 |
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| Budget 2004 Government's recent more expansionary stance was underlined in this budget. Although the strong rand and subdued global growth in the first half of fiscal 2003 contained revenue and left little scope for largesse on the taxation side, expenditure targets are aggressive . . . |
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To read more download PDF | [ 360 KB ] |
» February 2003 |
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| Budget 2003 A combination of better than expected growth and higher inflation boosted revenue in 2002/03 and once again gave the Minister considerable latitude in formulating government's budget for the year ahead . . . |
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To read more download PDF | [ 339 KB ] |
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